Modified Method of Gravity Model Application for Transatlantic Air Transportation

Helena Bínová


Air transportation between Europe and the U.S. is becoming more and more significant. It can only hardly be replaced by other means of transportation, since its biggest advantages include speed and reliability. Air transportation forecasting is important for planning the development of airports and related infrastructure, and of course also for air carriers. Therefore, it is important to forecast the number of flights between selected airports in Europe and the U.S. and the number of transported persons. A gravity model is usually used for this forecasting. Determination of coefficients which significantly affect results of the formulas used in the gravity model is crucial. Coefficients are, as a rule, computed by an iterative algorithm implementing the gradient method. This technique has some limitations if the state space is inappropriate. Moreover, the exponent parameter in the formula is obviously fixed. We have chosen the new method of differential evolution to determine the gravity model coefficient. Differential evolution works with populations similarly to other evolution algorithms. It is suitable for solving complex numerical problems. The suggested methodology can be helpful for various airlines to forecast demand and plan new long-haul routes.


air transportation; development; forecasting; gravity model; transatlantic flights; differential evolution

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